# Exogeneity Tests and Pre-Treatment Balance

## C1: Discrete-Time Hazard Model

*Logit: P(opens this year) ~ lagged covariates. At-risk sample = openers (pre-opening years) + never-opened.*

Pseudo-R² = 0.0462, LR p-value = 0.0290, N = 1015, Events = 35

| Variable | Coefficient | SE | p |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| const | -2.4510*** | (0.7910) | 0.0019 |
| ca_gdp_lag1 | -0.0458** | (0.0191) | 0.0161 |
| rgdp_growth_lag1 | 0.0031 | (0.0336) | 0.9276 |
| inflation_lag1 | 0.0084 | (0.0115) | 0.4660 |
| fiscal_bal_gdp_lag1 | 0.0054 | (0.0391) | 0.8910 |
| terms_of_trade_lag1 | -0.0175** | (0.0073) | 0.0172 |
| trade_openness_lag1 | 0.0064 | (0.0053) | 0.2287 |

## C2: Pre-Treatment Covariate Balance

*Openers: mean of 5 years pre-opening. Never-opened: same calendar window around median opening year.*

| Variable | Opener Mean | (SD) | Never Mean | (SD) | Norm. Diff | t-test p |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| ca_gdp | -4.359 | (7.537) | -4.879 | (8.694) | 0.064 | 0.665 |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | -4.114 | (5.306) | -2.573 | (4.115) | -0.324 | 0.038** |
| rgdp_growth | 3.785 | (5.431) | 1.812 | (6.444) | 0.331 | 0.034** |
| inflation | 19.218 | (35.625) | 230.173 | (787.281) | -0.379 | 0.048** |
| trade_openness | 76.968 | (36.944) | 65.344 | (35.256) | 0.322 | 0.049** |
| nfa_gdp | -0.854 | (2.405) | -0.693 | (0.608) | -0.092 | 0.411 |
| terms_of_trade | 90.869 | (26.851) | 93.946 | (43.727) | -0.085 | 0.673 |
| Z_1 | -1.624 | (1.209) | -2.269 | (0.667) | 0.661 | 0.000*** |
| Z_2 | -25.079 | (17.986) | -33.746 | (9.599) | 0.601 | 0.000*** |
| Z_3 | -354.381 | (246.701) | -465.256 | (128.743) | 0.563 | 0.000*** |
| gdp_pc_ppp | 9295.350 | (7917.320) | 7011.323 | (7133.965) | 0.303 | 0.031** |

*Normalized difference: (opener - never) / sqrt((s²_o + s²_n)/2). |d| > 0.25 considered imbalanced (Imbens & Rubin 2015).*
*Welch two-sample t-test (unequal variances).*